SP500 in the Long Term

I think it´s pretty clear how carefully we have to move in the markets nowadays.

From 2003 to 2008, the SP500 make a easy to follow move of about 808 points.

Now, from 2009 to 2012, the SP500 have make the 808 point, with more clear evidence of a BIG BEAR MARKET can start at any point. We have just to follow the RED TREND LINE that will make us be Bearish . The Brown TL it´s very important to see how close that Baer market will start.

But as everybody knows any market starts with a V Turn, normally they do W or X moves, to "distribute" the paper between the people that less follow the market. So we have to be smart enough to know with kind of move they are trying to make.

I think that at this point it´s easy to see that there is more room down than up, but the market still has not told us yet to put on the bear jacket, but just to keep in mind, where it is.

We see that the MACD it´s still Bullish and clearly above 0, so it´s not time to worry, but just to keep in mind what happend in the market in 07.

 “Study the past if you would define the future.”   - Confucius 

I think we will have more time, until a bear market stats, and maybe will start with a down move towards 1420 level, and again another move up towards 1500.

At that point will see ...... but stay in mind, that ...........

THE GOOD TIMES OF A BULL MARKET HAS GONE !!!!

Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle for the DOW

Remember that next year could be difficult for the markets. 

It´s important always to follow the big market cycles to get more changes of getting profit from the market.

After some days, watching the bull and bears fighting, with small victory for Bulls, now, i still think that bears will win in the rest of the year.

The levels for control are clear. 13.000 in the upside and 12.400 in the low side. I think this is just a lateral movement slightly in the upside. But still lateral. The next big movement is more probable that it´s Down, but the market have the last word, and until it makes higher lows, just keep watching.

Now i will go for some weeks on holidays, with no need to watch the market. Maybe the market will move up or down, with no pressure, but i thing Autumn will be quite bearish. Apple have just show has the potencial of a down move, and will start one day.

Maybe i just to bearish, maybe the goverments, politicians, know much more of everything than me, but because for me my money it´s important i doné believe in their words, and i only believe in my perspective and what the "tape" show me. To understand it, and know witch move its more probable that´s enough for me.

Be carefull, enjoy fun with family and friends, and only believe in your self, that´s who you have to be living every day with.

Take care

SP500 in 60 minutes chart

For me is very important the 1358 Level. In case the price moves above that price my Bear scenario will be cancelled.

Now i think that the price will go to the 61.8% retractment of the move from the 04/06, around 1292.

I think in the next days/weeks we will see prices below 1266, at least towards the 1250.

If the SP500 goes below 1260 and it doesn´t go above today max. before, it´s quite probably the price could reach the 1200 level.


Of course this "road map"  will be cancelled with prices above 1358.

Interesting videos.......
MILLION DOLLAR TRADERS

I hope you enjoy them, as much as i did.

COPPER .... beginning of a Bear Market

Can Copper, mark the beginning of another Big BEAR MARKET??

Nothing more to add, just see the chart, and ...... the market will tell us the thruth behind the numbers.

We have to study the past to learn about the future, although not always the past is repeated in the same way.

Work done by Kimble Charting Solutions.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2012/06/doc-copper-is-breaking-down-like-it-did-in-2008-is-the-messageimpact-going-to-be-the-same/

DOW JONES

Well........... lets post my opinion about the Dow Jones

We can see how finally the price drop when it broke the rising wedge, that was channeling the prices until March'12

The price try to make another up move, but after what we see is a double top witch a trend revearsal pattern very important to follow when it takes places.

The DJ move around 1030 points from April highs (13330-12300), after try to have some kind of rebound with very little force.

When this happend the next downtrend move will also be fast. This is the second move, that will take the price in my opinion to 11.670-11.500 (very close to the 61.8 rectracment of all the up trend since september last year).

Maybe the market will decide to take some stop around the 12000 and 11850 (50% fibo retractment). At 11850, it will be a good idea to close part of our "shorts", although i think the price could make other lows its important to close positions when the price move in our favour.

In my opinion this level of 11.500 we should close all the "shorts". Depends in how we achive that level we could think in a good rebound.

In the market you should never go only with one "road map", but several road maps and very dynamic as fast as the market moves.


"Take care of your losses and the market will take care of your profits"